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rounderspoker| The oil market has suddenly changed: This week's consecutive decline, where is the future heading?
editor 2024-05-26 08:00:37
3

Huitong Finance APP News--The crude oil market has experienced a series of fluctuations this weekrounderspokerBrent crude and WTI crude closed down 2.5%, respectivelyrounderspoker.1% and 2.8%, oil prices fell continuously on Thursday, setting the longest consecutive decline since January 2. The Federal Reserve's hawkish policy meeting minutes and concerns about inflation, as well as the increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, have combined to curb the outlook for crude oil demand.

However, WTI July crude oil futures and Brent crude oil July contract closed up slightly by 1.11% and closed at US$82.12/barrel respectively, showing a subtle shift in market sentiment.

rounderspoker| The oil market has suddenly changed: This week's consecutive decline, where is the future heading?

Interpretation of market trends:

This week's fluctuations in crude oil prices were mainly affected by the Federal Reserve's policy stance and U.S. economic data. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers were cautious about long-term maintenance of interest rates and inflation control, which led financial markets to significantly reduce expectations for a rate cut in 2024. At the same time, unexpected growth in new orders for durable goods in the United States and rising consumer confidence have provided support for the US dollar, but have also increased market concerns about slowing demand in a high interest rate environment.

Institutional analyst views:

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group, pointed out that the recognition that the economy is not slowing has delayed any expectation of a summer rate cut. Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, predicts that markets may reassess the current sell-off as U.S. demand picks up over the summer. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe that despite weak gasoline demand in the United States, the unexpected rise in global demand has offset the impact, and expect total consumption of liquid oil to increase significantly this year.

Technical analysis:

From a technical analysis perspective, after crude oil prices experienced continuous declines, the slight closing of WTI and Brent crude oil futures may indicate short-term stability in the market. However, considering the Fed's policy stance and the impact of economic data, there is still uncertainty about future price movements.

Future expectations:

Markets are closely watching OPEC+'s meeting on June 2 to discuss whether to extend the production reduction agreement. It is widely expected that production cuts will be extended until at least the end of September. In addition, production dynamics in Russia and Venezuela, as well as data released by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) that fund managers have increased net long positions, will also have an impact on the crude oil market.

The future trend of the crude oil market will be affected by multiple factors, including global economic conditions, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and OPEC+'s production reduction agreement. Investors should pay close attention to upcoming economic data and related events to make informed investment decisions.

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